The Saskatchewan Party government appears to have even stronger support at the midway mark of its term than it did on election night about two years ago, according to a Sigma Analytics survey conducted for the Regina Leader-Post.
Out of the decided voters, 59.5% would cast a ballot for the Saskatchewan Party, compared with 26.4% for the NDP, if an election was held right away, the survey found. The Green party and Liberal party each received about 5% support.
"You might say it's defying the laws of political gravity because usually after an election a government's numbers will start to decline," said Cam Cooper of Sigma Analytics. "This government has been in two years and the numbers are actually up."
On November 7, 2007, the Saskatchewan Party took 51% of the vote and captured 38 of the province's 58 seats. The NDP got 37% of the vote and was returned to opposition status after 16 years in government. About half of respondents said they approve of the way the government is handling its job, nearly 17% disapproved and 34% were neutral.
Premier Brad Wall fared better than his government, with 59% of respondents approving of the way he's handling his job as premier. Meanwhile, about 13% disapproved and 27.6% were neutral.
When respondents were asked their opinion of Wall as a person, 66% said positive or very positive. He registered his highest ratings on personal attributes for integrity, understanding of the economy and trustworthiness.
In contrast, 18.2% approve of the way the official Opposition is handling its job, 36.7% disapprove and 45.1% were neutral.
The performance of new NDP Leader Dwain Lingenfelter -- who in June replaced Lorne Calvert -- was rated as a draw by about 40% of respondents.
Nearly 16% approved of the way Lingenfelter is handling his job as Opposition leader and about 44% disapproved.
Meanwhile, 27% of people have a positive opinion of Lingenfelter as a person, with most neutral at 45.6%. His highest ratings on personal attributes were for business sense, understanding of the economy and ability to make decisions.
Cooper said the NDP hasn't yet benefited from a "Lingenfelter lift," but noted that could change as he spends more time in office.
"He's actually running behind his party and well behind the premier," Cooper said.
But Lingenfelter said Thursday that he's never viewed his return to Saskatchewan politics as a sprint, but rather as a steady climb to 2011 when the NDP aims to be ahead.
"I've known from Day 1 we have a lot of work to do and that's as true today as it was when I took over a few months ago. But we have some momentum going," said Lingenfelter, who noted the NDP has won three by-elections since the 2007 general election.
Lingenfelter said the Sask. Party benefited from the province's good economic position at the time the party formed government. But he added the government's recent $1.3-billion miscalculation of projected potash revenues has changed the financial picture and that could negatively affect opinion of the government as it has less to spend down the road.
However, Saskatchewan Party Environment Minister Nancy Heppner said the government is practising good fiscal management and stressed there are still many positives in the current economy.
She said much of the credit for the government's strong performance in the poll can go to the premier.
"He has been very focused, when we first became government, on getting us ready for growth, and now with the economic times that we are in to make sure that we sustain that growth," Heppner said.
Sigma Analytics is a Saskatchewan firm providing data mining and modelling, attitudinal polling and market research. The sample was drawn province-wide and stratified by 10 regions. Interviewing with 650 people took place by telephone between Oct. 28 and Nov. 3. This sample size would yield a general margin of error of plus or minus 3.84%, 19 times out of 20.
The Saskatchewan Party government appears to have even stronger support at the midway mark of its term than it did on election night about two years ago, according to a Sigma Analytics survey conducted for the Regina Leader-Post.
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